[ RASP UK Forecast (Stratus) ]

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What are these confidences?

The figures shown are an attempt to provide a view on how close to actual readings the RASP forecast is for today.

The data shown is based on comparing the RASP forecast to the current METARs for the locations listed (freely available every 60 minutes).

If the forecast across the UK for 85 percent of the sites listed for the parameter is close enough (e.g. wind speed), then the RASP forecast can be generally trusted. Sometimes the wind speed or direction does wander, particularly if the winds speeds are low. At less than 5 knots, variability does start to occur.

When heavy rain falls on a given site, RASP often is unable to resolve the subsequent temperature changes at a spot time, but does recover. When it does rain, humidity rises to 100% and that pulls the calculated cloud base to zero feet even if it isn't zero feet. Watch either side of the METAR reading as often the forecast recovers correctly.

As always, we're looking for trends rather than absolutes, so it is hoped that this facility gives confidence in the data provided.
Regional  Atmospheric  Soaring  Prediction
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BLIPMAP = Boundary Layer Information Prediction MAP - Created by Dr. John W. (Jack) Glendening, Meteorologist